Over the next few weeks, I plan to write a short series of blog posts on the state of Christianity worldwide in the year 2050. I write as someone who has travelled widely and who is a keen student of church history; beyond that I don’t claim to any authority or expertise in futurology. Please feel free to disagree completely with my predictions, which may well be completely inaccurate. The first post in this series concerns the church in the UK and by extension, the rest of the Western world.
The Environment for the Church in 2050
The hostility to religious faith that we experience today will continue to grow. While the church won’t be actively persecuted by the state, many of the privileges that we take for granted today will have been stripped away. “Promotion of religion” will no longer be accepted as a charitable objective and many churches and Christian charities will no longer benefit from gift-aid or other tax-exempt donation schemes. A general revamp of the House of Lords will see the bishops removed from the legislature. Collaborations between officialdom and religion in the form of faith-based schools and hospital chaplaincies will no longer exist. There will still be some inoffensive vestiges of religious expressions at some official functions, but these will be multi-faith and not specifically Christian.
The Church in 2050
There will be far fewer people who identify themselves as Christian and who attend any form of corporate worship. The next 35 years will see a rapid increase in the number of congregations who will close their doors and an increase in the number of church buildings which are put up for sale.
Broadly speaking, Christianity will split into two wings. There will be the publicly acceptable church which offers no real challenge to the prevailing culture, but which provides a dose of ‘spirituality’ for those that want it. Evangelical protestants and Roman Catholics will offer a form of Christianity which confronts the spirit of the age and as a result they will be considered as socially unacceptable by the majority of people. The Anglican church will attempt to straddle the two broad tendencies in the Church, but may find itself unable to do so and will face a major schism.
The decline in church numbers will place many Christian institutions at risk. It will simply not be possible for the current number of christian charities, seminaries, colleges and mission agencies (I’ll have more to say about mission agencies in a later post) to continue. Training for Christian ministry will shift from an expensive and inflexible residential based model to more informal models such as those offered by Porterbrook and St. Mellitus.
Declining numbers and increasingly onerous legislation will mean that many congregations will not be able to afford their own building. Equally, it will no longer be possible to use official buildings such as schools for religious meetings. Most cities will have one or two large churches, but the majority of Christians will meet in small groups based in homes.
The one exception to these trends will be found in the Asian and African diaspora churches. However, limits on immigration into the UK will cut off the supply of first generation people while second and third generation settlers will turn their backs on the church. By 2050, the diaspora churches will be in decline, but not as precipitately as the traditional British churches.
The situation will be broadly similar in Continental Europe, North America and Australasia.
I admit that this is a bleak picture and I hope that I’ve got it all wrong. However, this should not be taken to suggest that I have a lack of faith in God or in the future of the Church. The Western world represents a small percentage of the world’s population and later posts will indicate that I see a bright future for the church as a whole. Some people might want to argue that God would not allow the church to decline like this, but he has done so in the past (look at North Africa) and I don’t see why we should be considered immune.
What are your thoughts – comments below!
30 replies on “The British Church in 2050”
RT @kouya: The British Church in 2050: my prediction for the state of Christianity in the UK. Possibly a tad controversial! … http://t.co…
So you think that the immigrant church will remain just that and not have a significant impact on the culture in general? That is the opposite of the hope or speculation of stuff me that the immigrant church might create a renewal of the church in Europe. Any comment?
Stuff me = some. Clumsy fingers and autocorrect!
I don’t see the immigrant churches having much impact on wider British society at the moment, though they are the only part of the church that is growing significantly. There are a number of ethnic Brits who now attend African majority churches, but I this seems to be the exception, rather than the norm.
.@kouya with his crystal ball. Not actually, but this is interesting. The British Church in 2050 | Kouyanet http://t.co/x1DUYIoGaG
Interesting reading, Eddie. However, I would like to see your opinion about the likely development of how the UK Church impacts on the ills and troubles in today’s society. The separating of Church and State is, in fact, not necessarily something to be concerned about. The separation of Church and Community most certainly is! There seems to be an increasing divide between the State and the People, and if the Church is associated with the former rather than the latter, it will have less and less relevance to those most in need of it.
Don’t get me wrong, I’ve got no problem with separating church and state. I’m one of those anabaptist types who believe that the church should never have got entangled with the state in the first place. However, the loss of gift-aid and a ban on religious organisations using official buildings (which is already creeping in, in some places) would have a significant practical impact on the church.
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@kouya SOME of those predictions are not necessarily bad!
You might well have written something similar in 1715, but God had other plans. I look forward to your advice on what we should do about the situation..
That is very true, Ray.
You seem to be predicting a continuation of the current trend. However, I would argue that although there are fewer churchgoers now than in days gone by, there are in fact more Christians. In the Middle Ages the vast majority of people went to church because the law said they had to, they had not made a personal commitment to follow Christ and were even blocked from hearing the gospel due to the service being in a language that they did not understand. 50-100 years ago, although church attendance was now legally optional, a lot of people still went because it was the done thing, not out of any personal commitment they made. Today, it is increasingly not the done thing among unbelievers to go to church – it has become socially acceptable not to sit through something you think is a load of rubbish. Most people nowadays who go to church do so because they believe that Jesus Christ died on the cross and rose again to take punishment for their sins. The time will surely come when the two lines will cross on the graph and church attendance will increase again (but with a much greater proportion of churchgoers being Christians than in days gone by).
Your prediction that bishops will have been completely removed from the House of Lords is interesting, given that even the latest attempt to reform the House of Lords and introduce elected peers would have kept Bishops, albeit in reduced numbers. (This attempt failed because no agreement could be reached on the timetabling of the Commons committee stage, and the Tory backbench rebellion was strong enough that the Government would have faced defeat – it only got a Second Reading thanks to Labour support).
I’m not convinced by your argument that there are fewer churchgoers but more Christians and I’m pretty sure that the data (such as it is) doesn’t support this. Regarding the bishops in the House of Lords, I know that recent attempts at legislation did not seek to shift that, but if we are looking at a 35 year horizon, then I would expect big changes in this area. After all, a huge amount has happened since the first year of Mrs Thatcher’s time as prime minister, which was 35 years ago.
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What will the British church be like in 2050. I try my hand at futurology and end up being a little controversial http://t.co/0MsXPqaDtQ
RT @kouya: What will the British church be like in 2050. I try my hand at futurology and end up being a little controversial http://t.co/0M…
The #British #Church in 2050: where #Christianity in the #UK may be going in the next few decades http://t.co/oA9yFhvjOQ via @kouya
RT @SteveFouch: The #British #Church in 2050: where #Christianity in the #UK may be going in the next few decades http://t.co/oA9yFhvjOQ vi…
I see some places (and Gloucester is one of them), where there is an exciting change in the state of the church. There is an expectancy, there are growing churches and there is an increase of respect between churches so that denominational barriers are no longer an issue. I imagine that trend is going to be seen in quite a few cities and towns – so although the rest might look dark as you suggest, there will be places of brightness! God is definitely doing something new!
RT @SteveFouch: The #British #Church in 2050: where #Christianity in the #UK may be going in the next few decades http://t.co/oA9yFhvjOQ vi…
Generally agree Eddie. I share Ed’s question on your blog about the impact of immigration. According to Chief Inspector of Police Harrow is now the most ethnically and religiously diverse council area in Britain. My experience is that, generally, immigrants are more socially and theologically conservative than mainstream UK culture. Our church is very mixed and I notice that impact. While I agree with your prediction about theological education (a recent quote I heard was that UK colleges are in a ‘race to the bottom’) I do wonder if that will mean the end of full-time residential study altogether. Secular education is facing the same challenges and while it is becoming much more flexible there is no evidence of removing F/T study completely. Isn’t there a place for at least one top quality theological college in the UK? I think Mary is right in that there is a new wave of ecumenism that evangelicals are buying in to. I have mixed feelings about it though. I would love to believe that it was motivated by stronger convictions about unity and about the gospel but I fear that it actually reflects that we have weaker convictions about anything. So, same mixture of realism and optimism.
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The working together that I have seen could not be described as weakening convictions – just a recognition that there are perhaps more important things to fight over or for than baptism or church structure! And the gospel is very much in focus – not just head knowledge of it, but practical ways of expressing it and coming alongside people and praying for people.
The British Church in 2050: http://t.co/R4YvVyJSLC via @kouya
Sadly, if anything I think you are too optimistic. The withdrawal of tax and other privileges won’t last much longer. I suspect that by 2050 Christian pastors and evangelists may face imprisonment over such issues as gay marriage, church posts being open only to Christians and things like that. Unless the Lord blesses us with revival.
RT @kouya: What will the British church be like in 2050. I try my hand at futurology and end up being a little controversial http://t.co/0M…
RT @kouya: The British Church in 2050: my prediction for the state of Christianity in the UK. Possibly a tad controversial! … http://t.co…
Thanks for insight into the current trends within the British church and society and where this is likely to lead us.
A few thoughts spring to mind.
1. “… Roman Catholics will offer a form of Christianity which confronts the spirit of the age” is a very surprising statement to me. Could it be that this seems true of the Catholic church in some parts of the world, including the UK (where it isn’t the majority religion)? Of course, there are many sincere Christians among the Catholics; but as an institution, it has walked in compromise and apostasy for centuries, particularly in its establishment of mediators other than Jesus between God and man (Mary, the saints, the pope). Under the rule of the prince of this world, it has made God’s word subject to its own traditions and hierarchies.
Why is Catholic Europe now barren (much more than the UK)? How could the Catholic church resist the spirit of the age, if it isn’t in submission to the Spirit of God? I think it’s only a matter of time before the Catholic church’s “traditional” position on moral issues gives way to more “forward-thinking” ideas (is this an example? http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2577366/Pope-Francis-stop-condemning-sex-civil-partnerships-hints-leading-cardinal-step-Catholic-gay-marriage.html ).
2. I think the church’s response to antisemitism is a key factor to bear in mind as you examine polarisation of Christianity into a culturally acceptable church and a controversially uncompromising church. Irrational and demonic in its origin, lost humanity’s age-old hatred toward God’s chosen people (Pharaoh, Haman, crusades, inquisitions, pogroms, Nazis …) is building up again under the political guise of anti-zionism. The vision of the woman and the dragon (Revelation 12) tells us what this is leading up to: a specific period of persecution of the people of Israel coming from Satan himself, and followed by persecution of the church. The climax of all this is prophesied in Zechariah 12 to 14: the whole world united in an assault on Jerusalem, and the return of the Lord to the Mount of Olives.
In light of the centrality of these events in biblical prophecy, I think the fact that portions of the church buy in to the Father of lies’ discourse concerning Israel as propagated by world media particularly concerning and spiritually significant.
3. You say you see a bright future for the church as a whole – but doesn’t Matthew 24:12-13 suggest widespread falling away from the faith during the time preceding the Lord’s return? And doesn’t Matthew 24:14, along with the progress of Bible translation throughout the world, among so many other factors, suggest that His return is imminent (whatever that means – in any case, more imminent than when verse 14 was nowhere near being accomplished)?
Thanks for your comments Samuel.Just a quick response.
1. I don’t agree with much Catholic teaching, but I do believe that under the influence of Latin American and third world leaders the Catholic church will continue to offer a narrative which challenges the spirit of the age. Whether that challenge is all that it should be is a different question.
2. Regarding your eschatological questions, let’s just say that I take a very different reading of the future of Israel and the nature of Jesus discourse in Matthew 24 than you do.