Eddie and Sue Arthur

Possible Scenarios for Ivory Coast

Reuters have a rather depressing, but insightful piece on how things might evolve in Ivory Coast.

THE RETURN TO ALL-OUT WAR

With daily AK-47 assault rifles and heavy weapons fire booming through Abidjan, and clashes erupting in various places across the country this week, a return to all out civil war is looking increasingly likely.

Gbagbo still retains the public loyalty of the armed forces but, fearing a coup, is believed to have ensured that only his core elite forces have adequate access to the army’s weapons….

A STALEMATE OF SPORADIC CLASHES

Ivory Coast’s crises have a habit of fizzling into a slow burn neither war nor peace stalemate — as has been the case since 2002-3. In this scenario, no side makes much progress and the frontline doesn’t move much from the existing north-south one, with armed men on each side looting what they can from a rapidly shrinking economy…

AU PROPOSES A WAY OUT

African presidents tasked with resolving the Ivorian crisis by proposing a “binding solution” have been given another month to complete what appears to be a Herculean task…

GBAGBO BOWS TO DEMANDS AND LEAVES

Analysts see this as extremely unlikely unless his own life is in danger. Gbagbo has shown that he is more than willing to watch his country implode economically and head back to all out civil war if it will keep him in power…

The pundits and politicians can only guess what will happen. Please pray that mercy and justice will prevail – whatever that looks like in this situation.

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